A 5-litre container of palm oil that cost ₦8,500 in January 2025 now sells for an average of ₦13,800 in Lagos supermarkets — a 62% increase in twelve months. Palm oil is a staple of Nigerian cooking used by virtually every household. When its price surges at this rate, the impact on household budgets is immediate.
The supply chain story
Farm-gate prices for crude palm oil have increased by approximately 28% over the same period. Refinery costs added a further 8-10 percentage points. The remaining 20-plus percentage points appear attributable to margin expansion at the wholesale and retail level.
“Consumers are bearing costs that are not theirs to bear. There is no shortage of palm oil. There is a shortage of competitive pressure on retailers.” — Agriculture Policy Research Group
What the retailers say
Major supermarket chains cited increased logistics costs, generator fuel costs, and foreign exchange costs on imported packaging. One chain provided cost breakdowns supporting a 15-18% increase at their level. The remainder, they acknowledged, represented margin recovery.
